Dublin Opinion

Zapatero has to overcome rising unemployment, inflation at double the EU average, and a crisis in the construction industry, which has been hit by the global credit squeeze. Having seen the economy grow at a rate of 4% in recent years, analysts say it could drop to 2.5% this year.” (”Spanish socialists pledge new era after poll victory”, Guardian, 10 March 2008

I have little less than a modest grip on Spanish politics, but even I could not fail to notice that there has been an election, and that the socialist PSOE has been given a new mandate by the electorate. The result was quickly known, due to Spain´s use of the D’Hondt method, whereby citizens vote for the party of their choice, not the candidate of their choice. There is no single transferable vote, and no picture of Willie O’Dea on the ballot paper. In fact, only the names of each party and its leader appear on the list, and each party must gain at least 3% of the vote in order to qualify for parliamentary representation. The candidates for parliament are chosen according to a party list, and seats are proportioned out according to the percentage of the overall vote attained. So, seven hours after polls closed, and with 96% of the ballots counted, it is known that the ruling party, the PSOE, has won 43.7% of the vote, with the conservative PP (popular party) winning 40.1%.

The run-up to the election, however, saw a great deal of emphasis on certain issues: in particular, the economy, the price of housing, and the issue of immigrants and immigration. In order to pre-empt cries of being “soft” on immigration, the socialists have brought in new requirements for non-nationals working in Spain, the structure of which have all the contours of political spin.

Since January 2008, all non-nationals who work in Spain have to register with the immigrant office or face a mandatory tax of 25% on all earnings, regardless of their EU status. Wages in Spain are low - the average industrial wage is around €19,500 a year - and my wages here amount to around €960 a month. (I work 25 hours a week as an English language teacher.) With that, taxes are quite low - my normal tax bracket, for example, is 2%. So, I took the two days it takes to 1) queue in the immigration office in order to make my initial request to be placed on the list of foreign nationals in Spain, and 2) queue in the city police HQ where I finally got the piece of paper informing me that, yes, I am officially resident as a foreign national in Spain. (Before all of that, I had to get my landlord to register me with the city council as resident in Zaragoza.) So. Now it´s official. I am not Spanish.

The situation is akin to someone from Britain or Germany, or indeed, Spain, having to queue in the immigrant office at Burgh Quay for half a day, in order to get a piece of paper that will allow them to queue at the Garda HQ in the Phoenix Park for half a day, in order to get a piece of paper informing them that they are not Irish - and all as part of a political stoke in order to appear “tough” on immigration.

There is no fear of FF copying the PSOE´s populist stroke on this one, as the need to have landlords register their tenants with the city council would require, first of all, landlords to be registered themselves - enough to share the shit out of the little tykes. (Bless ‘em.)

In terms of economy, however, Spain and Ireland share a common feature: namely, an over-reliance on an over-priced housing market.

I am not sure as to what measures Mr. Zapatero and Co. have up their sleeves with regard to getting Spain out of its building mess, but one thing that seems certain is that all and sundry here have accepted that the international credit crisis makes it nigh impossible for the old inflationary prices to continue in any fashion. In other words, the crisis is bigger than any national economy. The houses are over-priced, credit has run out, and wages are just too low to sustain national credit incentives.

In fact, the succinct paragraph quoted above from the Guardian contains the one line you will never hear in the Irish Times or the Irish Independent:

…a crisis in the construction industry, which has been hit by the global credit squeeze.

For example, this from yesterday´s Sunday Independent and its 10-point plan to save the Irish economy:

Step one: Cowen must reform residential and commercial stamp duty, even if he doesn’t abolish this penal tax. In its current form it is a clear barrier to activity.

Simply no fucking idea as to what is going on with regard to international credit and over-priced housing markets across the world. The thought that the Irish stamp duty rate is somehow a clear barrier to activity is one that sees the shape of Jesus in cloud formations.

Another part of the Sindo´s cloud formation plan for Ireland is a freeze on wages in order to make Ireland “competitive” again - one that it linked to energy costs.

Step ten: Cowen and Eamon Ryan must reduce energy costs for businesses and consumers. It is the second biggest barrier to investment, after wage costs.

I´m going to draw on Michael Taft´s excellent work in order to explain why the high wages cloud formation has no shape, and also why the high cost of energy in Ireland is part of FF´s drive to privatise energy supply. I suppose one cannot expect much from a newspaper such as the Sindo when it leaves it to a Z-rate talent-show judge to comment on politics and corruption.

The Spanish people have given the PSOE and Zapatero a strong mandate for an uncertain future. In common with them, I do not know what the next four years hold - and that cuts at a personal level. However, with Zapatero and Co. they´ve chosen a party with less ties to the building industry than their rivals in the PP - and with that less favours to ‘honour’.

The first step towards moving away from an over-reliance on construction is to elect a party willing and able to do so. In Ireland, the smart move would have been to do the same thing. Last year we had our chance. We didn’t do it. We have to live with the consequences of that decision, but it doesn’t mean we have to accept the continued failed analysis of the broadsheets or the government press office. Similarly, the Irish left - in essence, Labour and Sinn Féin - have to start making the economy the one issue on which it is they who are providing clear analysis and practical powerpoints. Given the fact that the government parties have no ideas, and their broadsheet supporters even less, the opportunity is there for the taking.