Comments on: Elephant in the Room might just be Dumbo http://dublinopinion.com/2007/05/18/elephant-in-the-room-might-just-be-dumbo/ It's a group blog. What more do you need to know? Thu, 09 Feb 2012 12:54:30 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.2.1 By: Donagh http://dublinopinion.com/2007/05/18/elephant-in-the-room-might-just-be-dumbo/#comment-17781 Donagh Mon, 28 May 2007 14:49:29 +0000 http://dublinopinion.com/2007/05/18/elephant-in-the-room-might-just-be-dumbo/#comment-17781 I did expect they would have a larger haul. But I wasn't the only one who thought that and I was also expecting them to take some of the vote from FF, which didn't happen. It seems that when it came to making a choice most of those who may have been tempted to go the sinn fein route balked when it came to voting, maybe because they were thinking that without FF all they have gained in the last 10 years would be lost. There was also the fact that although Sinn Fein did the groundwork with the same determination and organization as FF in the areas where they were likely to increase their vote, they were too vague on economic policy. Gerry Adams fudging of the issues didn't help. They were stuck half way between high minded populism and having the required detail on their economic policy should they be part of the next government. Because they didn't have the detail they weren't trusted. We haven't seen the last of them because their party members have the sort of political commitment that is quiet uncommon in Irish politics, aside from FF of course. Despite their setback they are still on a roll. But you're absolutely right, . One is that their leadership is split between north and south and they have yet to road test their policy for ensure its credible. I did expect they would have a larger haul. But I wasn’t the only one who thought that and I was also expecting them to take some of the vote from FF, which didn’t happen.

It seems that when it came to making a choice most of those who may have been tempted to go the sinn fein route balked when it came to voting, maybe because they were thinking that without FF all they have gained in the last 10 years would be lost. There was also the fact that although Sinn Fein did the groundwork with the same determination and organization as FF in the areas where they were likely to increase their vote, they were too vague on economic policy.

Gerry Adams fudging of the issues didn’t help. They were stuck half way between high minded populism and having the required detail on their economic policy should they be part of the next government. Because they didn’t have the detail they weren’t trusted.

We haven’t seen the last of them because their party members have the sort of political commitment that is quiet uncommon in Irish politics, aside from FF of course. Despite their setback they are still on a roll. But you’re absolutely right, . One is that their leadership is split between north and south and they have yet to road test their policy for ensure its credible.

]]> By: Paul Little http://dublinopinion.com/2007/05/18/elephant-in-the-room-might-just-be-dumbo/#comment-17760 Paul Little Mon, 28 May 2007 08:44:31 +0000 http://dublinopinion.com/2007/05/18/elephant-in-the-room-might-just-be-dumbo/#comment-17760 How do you assess what happened to the Shinners? I see Donagh that you believed they would definitely increase their seat haul. Have we misjudged the intelligence of the council estate population? To my mind, media exposure has exposed them> I've already seen reports saying that many people already view them like all the rest - you only see them when they want something. Good to see them struglle - but they've not gone away you know How do you assess what happened to the Shinners? I see Donagh that you believed they would definitely increase their seat haul. Have we misjudged the intelligence of the council estate population? To my mind, media exposure has exposed them> I’ve already seen reports saying that many people already view them like all the rest - you only see them when they want something. Good to see them struglle - but they’ve not gone away you know

]]> By: Donagh http://dublinopinion.com/2007/05/18/elephant-in-the-room-might-just-be-dumbo/#comment-17227 Donagh Wed, 23 May 2007 15:10:59 +0000 http://dublinopinion.com/2007/05/18/elephant-in-the-room-might-just-be-dumbo/#comment-17227 You're right Jim. Their initial rise came from attracting those who would normally have no interest in politics. In council estates all around the country we have seen the 'RA graffitti for years, or at least I have. So its no surprise when Sinn Fein started to get active in the South that their mandate with the disenfranchised would increase. Their party machine is also very solid, matched by inexplicable funding and honed to perfection by their experience in the North. They know how to say the right things to the right people and keep the issues small and local, and as I point out above, getting around the houses of those most likely to vote for them. But on national policy they're a bit vague and full of wish fulfillment. Vincent Browne in the <a href="http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/opinion/2007/0523/1179498643680.html" rel="nofollow">Irish Times today</a> says that despite what FF are saying at the moment, if the numbers are right they'll take SF in. "...it will be "discovered" there is no incompatibility on economic policy between Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin and no bother about the EU, because Sinn Féin does not stand for anything ... " Or perhaps they just haven't been part of the mainstream long enough yet. SF are definitely going to increase the number of TD they have. Decoupled from the 'struggle' in the North they have yet to establish themselves dealing with the issues down south. With a large mandate they could become part of a significant poltical force in the Dail. However, if they enter government now, they will be seen as another centrist party who stand for nothing in particular. If they don't they have every chance of establishing themselves as part of the alternative. That said, I really don't trust 'em. I think that what will happen is that they'll be all for entering government, but that FF will use their pliancy as the shoehorn to force Labour to agree to government with FF. You’re right Jim. Their initial rise came from attracting those who would normally have no interest in politics. In council estates all around the country we have seen the ‘RA graffitti for years, or at least I have. So its no surprise when Sinn Fein started to get active in the South that their mandate with the disenfranchised would increase. Their party machine is also very solid, matched by inexplicable funding and honed to perfection by their experience in the North. They know how to say the right things to the right people and keep the issues small and local, and as I point out above, getting around the houses of those most likely to vote for them.
But on national policy they’re a bit vague and full of wish fulfillment. Vincent Browne in the Irish Times today says that despite what FF are saying at the moment, if the numbers are right they’ll take SF in.
“…it will be “discovered” there is no incompatibility on economic policy between Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin and no bother about the EU, because Sinn Féin does not stand for anything … ”

Or perhaps they just haven’t been part of the mainstream long enough yet. SF are definitely going to increase the number of TD they have. Decoupled from the ’struggle’ in the North they have yet to establish themselves dealing with the issues down south. With a large mandate they could become part of a significant poltical force in the Dail.

However, if they enter government now, they will be seen as another centrist party who stand for nothing in particular.

If they don’t they have every chance of establishing themselves as part of the alternative. That said, I really don’t trust ‘em. I think that what will happen is that they’ll be all for entering government, but that FF will use their pliancy as the shoehorn to force Labour to agree to government with FF.

]]> By: jim http://dublinopinion.com/2007/05/18/elephant-in-the-room-might-just-be-dumbo/#comment-17208 jim Wed, 23 May 2007 12:00:03 +0000 http://dublinopinion.com/2007/05/18/elephant-in-the-room-might-just-be-dumbo/#comment-17208 Don't you think the shinners know all this already? They realise that for many years they will be pariahs for the liberal, middle-class voter, like the average blogger. The chattering classes are not their target market. For the last number of years SF have been working hard in working class neighbourhoods on grassroots, community-based issues. They have an 'in' in places like my area (East Wall, inner city, etc.) in that these areas are tradionally ignored by the generally centerist mainstream parties. I'd imagine that they will get plenty of votes in the parts of the country bypassed by the Celtic Tiger, from people who don't care about stamp duty reform (because the property market is way beyond them), people who have an open admiration for the IRA, people who don't have middle-class concerns. Sinn Fein's bullet point list of issues is always local, local. local. McDonald's leaflet lists the Childrens' Hospital, reopening the Broadstone railway line, social housing, anti-social behaviour, drugs crisis. Do you think anyone in the leafy 'burbs cares about these issues? Sinn Fein couldn't give a monkey's what you think, and wouldn't waste a moment canvassing you. Expect to see more SF TDs after the election. Personally, I'm expecting to see the baby-faced terrorist as my local TD. Heaven help us, but that's democracy for you. Don’t you think the shinners know all this already? They realise that for many years they will be pariahs for the liberal, middle-class voter, like the average blogger. The chattering classes are not their target market. For the last number of years SF have been working hard in working class neighbourhoods on grassroots, community-based issues. They have an ‘in’ in places like my area (East Wall, inner city, etc.) in that these areas are tradionally ignored by the generally centerist mainstream parties. I’d imagine that they will get plenty of votes in the parts of the country bypassed by the Celtic Tiger, from people who don’t care about stamp duty reform (because the property market is way beyond them), people who have an open admiration for the IRA, people who don’t have middle-class concerns.

Sinn Fein’s bullet point list of issues is always local, local. local. McDonald’s leaflet lists the Childrens’ Hospital, reopening the Broadstone railway line, social housing, anti-social behaviour, drugs crisis. Do you think anyone in the leafy ‘burbs cares about these issues?

Sinn Fein couldn’t give a monkey’s what you think, and wouldn’t waste a moment canvassing you. Expect to see more SF TDs after the election. Personally, I’m expecting to see the baby-faced terrorist as my local TD. Heaven help us, but that’s democracy for you.

]]> By: Election Debates... Election 2007 « The Cedar Lounge Revolution http://dublinopinion.com/2007/05/18/elephant-in-the-room-might-just-be-dumbo/#comment-16619 Election Debates... Election 2007 « The Cedar Lounge Revolution Fri, 18 May 2007 23:23:10 +0000 http://dublinopinion.com/2007/05/18/elephant-in-the-room-might-just-be-dumbo/#comment-16619 [...] Franklittle has already referred to this and Paul Little (they must be related) has an interesting post on Dublin Opinion on the same topic. it’s a real problem for Sinn Féin, not that Gerry Adams [...] […] Franklittle has already referred to this and Paul Little (they must be related) has an interesting post on Dublin Opinion on the same topic. it’s a real problem for Sinn Féin, not that Gerry Adams […]

]]> By: Seanachie http://dublinopinion.com/2007/05/18/elephant-in-the-room-might-just-be-dumbo/#comment-16601 Seanachie Fri, 18 May 2007 20:14:47 +0000 http://dublinopinion.com/2007/05/18/elephant-in-the-room-might-just-be-dumbo/#comment-16601 Sorry there, didn't edit that well; I meant to say 'increasing the bloodshed' and not 'endorsing bloodshed'. Sorry there, didn’t edit that well; I meant to say ‘increasing the bloodshed’ and not ‘endorsing bloodshed’.

]]> By: Seanachie http://dublinopinion.com/2007/05/18/elephant-in-the-room-might-just-be-dumbo/#comment-16600 Seanachie Fri, 18 May 2007 20:13:19 +0000 http://dublinopinion.com/2007/05/18/elephant-in-the-room-might-just-be-dumbo/#comment-16600 I agree with you all the way; the mundane business of running a government is enough to rob any party of its mystique. It is for this reason, and not for any prediliction to tyranny on the left, that so many revolutionary governments have ended up endorsing bloodshed - the alternative was too deadening for them to stomach. The Shinners have passed over to the other side, just as Fianna Fáil and the Mexican PRI have done before them, and I have also been trying to explain to Israeli friends of mine that the establishment of Hamas as a party of government is the greatest thing that could ever have happened to Israel. After five years or so of trying to administer the Palestinian Territories, Hamas will be as toothless as the day they began. This doesn't explain the Israelis' terror tactics in trying to spark off a Civil War between Hamas and Fatah but that is another story. If the Labour Party can eventually bury their hatchet with the Shinners (and there are very good reasons for them to delay doing so), the complexion of Irish politics could be changed forever. It all sounds terribly Machiavellian, but then it probably is. I agree with you all the way; the mundane business of running a government is enough to rob any party of its mystique. It is for this reason, and not for any prediliction to tyranny on the left, that so many revolutionary governments have ended up endorsing bloodshed - the alternative was too deadening for them to stomach. The Shinners have passed over to the other side, just as Fianna Fáil and the Mexican PRI have done before them, and I have also been trying to explain to Israeli friends of mine that the establishment of Hamas as a party of government is the greatest thing that could ever have happened to Israel. After five years or so of trying to administer the Palestinian Territories, Hamas will be as toothless as the day they began. This doesn’t explain the Israelis’ terror tactics in trying to spark off a Civil War between Hamas and Fatah but that is another story.

If the Labour Party can eventually bury their hatchet with the Shinners (and there are very good reasons for them to delay doing so), the complexion of Irish politics could be changed forever. It all sounds terribly Machiavellian, but then it probably is.

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